Midterm polls give edge to Democrats in House races, GOP in Senate contests

UPDATE — 11/6, 2:02 p.m. EST: University of Florida professor Dr. Michael McDonald of the United States Elections Project reports nearly 39 million midterm ballots were cast before Election Day across the country, compared to 27.2 million in 2014.

Texas, Arizona and Nevada early voting totals have already outpaced all ballots cast in those states during the last midterm election.

Using data compiled by Edison Media Research, Dr. McDonald predicts almost 45 percent of the voting-eligible population, over 105.5 million people, will cast ballots in the 2018 midterms, over 22 million more than four years ago when only 83.2 million voted.


As congressional candidates and President Donald Trump mount a furious last-minute push to inspire voters one day before the 2018 midterm elections, a general consensus has formed Democrats will retake the House, but not seize the Senate.

According to both NBC/Wall Street Journal and Washington Post/ABC News polls, Democrats hold a seven-point advantage over the GOP ahead of Tuesday’s elections, 50 percent to 43 percent.

Analysis by CBS News/YouGov similarly estimates 225 Democrats and 210 Republicans will be seated in the 116th Congress, mostly as the result of GOP incumbents losing in swing suburban districts.

A slight drop from an early October NBC/Wall Street Journal poll revealing Democrats with a nine-point advantage, most political analysts say the controversial hearings surrounding Justice Brett Kavanaugh and the thriving economy may have aroused GOP voters.

The NBC/Wall Street Journal poll was conducted among registered voters aged 18 to 75, Nov. 1–3 by Hart Research Strategies, polling data reveals Democrats leading among voters most interested in the midterm elections, 75–63 percent.

The Washington Post/ABC News survey also polled registered voters, Oct. 29–Nov. 1, and found President Trump as possibly the biggest predictor of midterm voting, with 88 percent of respondents who disapprove of the president preferring Democratic House candidates and 87 percent of those in approval of Trump favoring GOP contenders.

Similarly, in an advantage for Democrats, the party also maintains an edge with black, Hispanic, female and Millennial voters by significant percentages.

In contrast, the GOP’s strength remains among whites and voters aged 50–64, according to the NBC poll.

The GOP also remains popular in the demographic of both men and women without a college degree by a staggering 65–30 percent margin.

Despite FiveThirtyEight‘s Nate Silver estimating Republican losses in the House could amount to close to 40 seats, analysis says the GOP is preparing to maintain control over Congress’ upper chamber and perhaps increase their slim majority.

At risk for Senate Democrats are seats held in Florida, Missouri, Indiana, West Virginia, North Dakota and Montana although the most recent polling shows incumbents in all but one of those states leading or tied. Republican seats most likely to flip in the upper chamber include Arizona and Nevada.

As of Monday, over 33 million early ballots have been cast nationwide for races to determine control of both chambers of Congress, state assemblies and governorships.


[CBS News] [Politico] [Photo courtesy Getty Images via Adweek]