Analyses characterize presidential race differently, but Clinton still has electoral advantage

The Associated Press (AP) released its analysis of the 2016 presidential race on Monday, showing Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton with a significant electoral advantage heading into the fall campaign and before the first of three debates with Republican nominee Donald Trump on Sept. 26.

Taking into account recent polling data and election history, demographics and campaign resource allocation, including advertising and ground staff, AP rated 22 states equaling 269 electoral votes as leaning or solidly Democratic, just one vote shy of the 270 needed to clinch the election.


courtesy AP

Trump, conversely, has 23 states in the “leans” or “solid” category, but that only translates to 191 electoral votes.  Six states were rated as “toss-ups” — Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Nevada, Iowa and New Hampshire, five of which Clinton leads according to the RealClear Politics.

Traditionally Republican states within the Secretary’s reach include Georgia and Arizona, the former averaging in polls within the margin of error at 1.6 and .4-point leads for Trump in two-way and four-way match-ups.

The Washington Post also released a massive 50-state poll conducted by SurveyMonkey on Tuesday, showing Clinton with a significant, but not as impressive lead.  In all, more than 74,000 registered voters were surveyed between Aug. 9 and Sept. 1, showing the Democratic nominee with a fairly safe 244 electoral votes, to Trump’s 126.

The Post‘s analysis was more favorable to Trump than AP because it listed 10 states in the “toss-up” category, some traditionally Democratic like Wisconsin and Michigan, but others solidly Republican, such as Texas, Georgia and Mississippi.

The survey also found Trump polling at historic lows for a Republican presidential candidate among white and especially female college graduates. The New York real estate mogul is most popular with older, white voters and whites without a college degree — possibly bringing Rust Belt states into play that usually vote Democratic like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Ohio.

In 2012, GOP nominee Mitt Romney won 56 percent of white, college-educated voters and 59 percent of white men with a degree. This election cycle, according to SurveyMonkey, Clinton leads Trump among white, college graduates in 31 states, tied in six others and beating Trump by 23 percent with white women who have a college degree.

Conversely, Trump leads Clinton in 43 states among whites who haven’t graduated college and both are tied in six other states with the same demographic.

As far as the third-party effect, four-way polls suggest Clinton’s lead over Trump is cut slightly when Libertarian and Green Party candidates Gary Johnson and Jill Stein are offered as options.  SurveyMonkey’s data shows that Gov. Johnson has 15 percent or more support in 15 states, the highest being in New Mexico with 25 percent, Utah — 23 percent, and Colorado and Iowa — 16 percent.

Dr. Jill Stein’s support is strongest in Vermont at 10 percent, and polls at seven percent or higher in nine other states.

According to the latest RealClear Politics national averages, Clinton’s lead over Trump has started to shrink, leading now by only 3.3 points in two-way, and 2.4 points in four-way polls.


[AP] [Washington Post] [Image courtesy via Odyssey]