Analyses show stark difference in impact of Clinton, Trump economic plans

A report by Moody’s Analytics released Friday shows that Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton’s economic policy proposals would significantly help the U.S. economy by adding 3.2 million more jobs and increasing gross domestic product (GDP) growth by about half a percent by the end of her first-term, compared to projections under current law.

Three of Mrs. Clinton’s proposals in particular would have a significant economic impact.

  1. A 5 year, $275 billion federal investment to renovate infrastructure, including roads, bridges and airports, as well as dams and wastewater systems, using private contractors.
  2. Immigration reform, including a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants currently in the U.S., resulting in more skilled workers.
  3. Paid family leave program, guaranteeing up to 12 weeks for new mothers or serious illness would increase employment.

Clinton’s call for a gradual increase to a $12 per hour federal minimum wage would cost 650,000 jobs, but average post-tax household income would increase by $2,000 by the end of 2020 — $300 more than currently projected.

By comparison, analysis of Donald Trump’s proposals by Moody’s in June, which include across-the-board tax cuts, tariffs on imports and the deportation of up to 11 million illegal immigrants, show his plans would lead to a recession — costing 3.5 million jobs, increasing unemployment to seven percent, depressing home prices and stagnating GDP growth.

“Evident from her proposals is the belief that the country needs to invest more in education, infrastructure and workers, and that the well-to-do, and to a lesser degree financial institutions and businesses, should pay for it,” the report stated. “While her budget arithmetic does not completely add up, it is pretty close, and the nation’s debt load under her plan is no different than under current law,”

While no evidence of bias in the respective analyses has been reported, lead author Mark Zandi is a registered Democrat and donated $2,700 to the Clinton campaign in 2015.  Zandi also served as a John McCain economic adviser during the Arizona senator’s 2008 presidential campaign and publicly supported President Obama’s 2009 economic stimulus package.

Following release of the Trump report, the Republican nominee’s campaign stated that it “should be put in the trash can.”

Moody’s analysis uses economic forecast methods similar to those employed by the Federal Reserve and the Congressional Budget Office.


[CNN Money] [Wall Street Journal]