Two general election polls released Sunday by NBC News and the Washington Post show the presumptive Democratic and Republican nominees — Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump — in a statistical tie nationally.
The NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters from May 15-19, showing Clinton with a three point lead — 46 to 43 percent — over Trump.
Demographically, Clinton wins overwhelmingly with blacks, Hispanics, women and millennials, while Trump has almost as big of a lead among whites, senior citizens and men. The New York real estate mogul also wins Independents by five points — 42 to 37 percent.
The Washington Post/ABC News poll, conversely, found Trump leading Clinton overall — 46 to 44 percent — giving Trump a slight advantage in the RealClear Politics average for the first time since polling of the hypothetical match-up began in May 2015.
The survey was conducted between May 16 and May 19, among 829 registered voters.
Notably, Trump and Clinton have the worst combined unfavorable ratings in the history of presidential election polling. Both the NBC and Washington Post polls found each candidate with net double-digit negatives in terms of favorability — with Trump’s rating slightly worse than Clinton’s.
On the issues in particular, Clinton scores better than Trump on “experience to be a president”, “personality and temperament”, and “more realistic policy proposals”.
Trump received higher marks on “trust more to handle taxes” and “bring needed change to Washington”, while also edging Clinton in the “honest and trustworthy” category — 42 to 41 percent.
More significant than national surveys to the dynamics of a presidential election, however, are polls conducted in swing states like Florida and Ohio — states President Obama won in both 2008 and 2012.
On Sunday, CBS News in conjunction with YouGov released the results of their online survey which polled over 1,500 likely voters in both the Buckeye and Sunshine states, showing Clinton with a statistically insignificant one point advantage in Florida and a heftier five point lead in Ohio — 44 to 39 percent.
Other states in the “toss-up” category for the 2016 general election, according to experts, include Colorado, Iowa, North Carolina, Virginia and New Hampshire — all trending Democratic over the past decade.
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