Iran Deal will likely survive congressional challenge

Republicans and other skeptics of the Iran Nuclear Deal have begun to plan how to tackle sinking the deal agreed to between the P5+1 nations and Iran. Since the deal was not sealed prior to the July 9 deadline, congress will have 60 days to review the deal, and Senator Bob Corker (R-TN), chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, has said he will begin his review “from a place of deep skepticism“.

Any effort in Congress to overturn the deal will face an uphill fight. Republicans have majorities in both the House of Representatives and Senate, but they would need the support of dozens of President Barack Obama’s fellow Democrats to sustain a “resolution of disapproval” that could cripple a deal.

The odds of that are slim. A resolution of disapproval would need only the Republican majority to pass the House, but would require at least six Democrats to get the 60 votes needed to advance in the Senate. The chances of mustering enough support to then overrule an Obama veto are slimmer still.

Opponents of any deal are numerous, and fears of our regional partners have not been allayed, rather we have attempted to buy their trust with increased arms transfers. If one were to search for any analyst in the world who expects that Iran’s support to terrorist groups worldwide would suddenly decline they would come up empty handed.

Recently released WikiLeaks documents indicate that Saudi Arabia remains deeply paranoid of Iran’s rise, and a direct clash–an escalation from the proxy war otherwise known as the Yemen civil war–may be ultimately unavoidable. Interestingly, Israel and Saudi Arabia are now moving closer in alignment than at any time in the past, which is important when it is remembered the rumor back in 2009 that Saudi Arabia had given the blessing for Israel to fly through Saudi airspace to attack Iran.

For his part, however, Syria’s embattled dictator Bashar al-Assad is ecstatic about the deal and hopeful Iran will provide even more support to his feeble regime.

[Reuters][Fox News][NY Times][Haaretz][Daily Beast]